Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Aubry McClendon rides sinking ship down

Aubrey rides a sinking ship down. You could call it greed but you could also see it as last ditch effort to pump up stock in a heavily over extended company. You had all the talking heads pumping up natural gas for reasons that were only legit in their own head. IE (will oil is up so natural gas must go up…JJCramer) genius theory yes!!!!!! Everyone on Cnbc pumped up Chesapeake as if they were all in on the gig. My first question was how in the world would we see natural gas prices sky rocket when we have been finding more and more supply practically daily. This was the first warning sign that the Nat gas gurus were missing the boat and that the past several years of riding a mo mo stock to the bank wasn’t going to work for them in the near term. They could believe talking about a stock on national TV wouldn’t give it more momentum. They sited numerous buys by the Aubrey McClendon the CEO as sure sign the stock was going higher. They missed the truth by miles. Nat gas supply was growing Oil and Nat gas are two different commodities. Yeh rocket science I know…one is gas one is oil…doh The ceo doesn’t always know what is going on either. They are just as likely to be trying to bail out a sinking ship by showing confidence; however, ill guided it could be at the time. stock secondary selling of drillable land to raise capital. we cant drive cars with Nat gas yet we are finding more and more ways to burn coal cleaner and more efficiently Natural gas pipelines are costly to build and costly to maintain and many American homes still use heating oil that is delivered by truck to the homes and it is costly to convert home heating systems to natural gas. The guys on TV tend to live in a TV created bubble and their hubris tends to get in their way more often than not in these days of media hype where immediate ratings are more important that long term quality programming or quality investment advice. Remember when anyone tells you can watch TV and get rich they are appealing to the couch potato inside of you and hope that you will trust them and buy their book. They need you to believe them without question and they need you to be lazy and to not do your homework because then you will find out the truth about their strategies and you will find out why they need to get paid millions of dollars in TV and book contracts instead of using their “genius skill” to create unlimited wealth through stock trading. The point is this: HOW MANY TV SHOWS HAVE YOU SEEN WARREN BUFFET HOSTING? HOW MANY TIMES A WEEK DO YOU SEE WAREN BUFFET OFFERING STOCK PICKS TO THE PUBLIC? I think you get my point. In the movie “School of Rock” Jack black has the greatest line that seemed to fit the conversation he was having with the school faculty but also could be applied to the Wall Street “gurus”. “Those who can’t do teach…… Those who can’t teach, teach Gym”……….. (not you Mom!) I know some people are great teachers and love it like my Mother) Most gurus become gurus in good times and are lucky they don’t have to rely on their stock trading to provide income during the down times because they likely would meltdown. They would vaporize if they didn’t have the TV or book contract to save them from their horrible stock picks.

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